Thousands poured onto October Square in Minsk to protest the victory of Aleksandr Lukashenko in Belarus’ presidential election. Cold and boredom, however, quickly overcame most of those present leaving a meager few to stick it out with opposition candidates Aleksandr Milinkevich and Aleksandr Kozulin.
Prior to the protests, a number of activists were optimistic that a mass rally could lead to a revolutionary scenario, similar to that in Ukraine, that would replace Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime with a liberal democratic government.
Few expected Lukashenko to loose the elections outright. From the start of campaigning a few months ago opposition candidates and their supporters have been harassed, beaten and arrested. “The authorities only understand force,” said Press Secretary for the opposition Zubr Movement Aliaksandr Atroshchankau. “Evolution is not possible; we need revolution.” Atroshchankau was quick to point out that his group does not advocate violence, only mass peaceful protest.
Despite activists’ hopes, however, the protests fizzled almost as soon as they began. Weather was one reason for this. The sub-zero temperatures kept many at home and forced a good number to leave the rally early.
The event was also poorly planned with quite a bit of confusion as to where and when the protest would take place. This was partly the fault of the organizers. Numerous groups participated and there was no central decision making body. The Milinkevich campaign failed to take adequate control of the situation. Just two hours before the event one leader from Malady Front, a youth group affiliated with the presidential candidate, still had little detailed information.
The government played its hand well. The police presence was minimal and the much anticipated violent suppression failed to materialize. It is likely that use of force would have drawn sympathy for the protesters. As it turned out, the demonstration dissipated on its own. The state controlled media, in turn were able to use footage of spiky haired teenagers as proof that the opposition is little more than a bunch of thugs that would only destabilize the country.